Following the two different test moments in the school year, the temperature measures show a bimodal distribution (see Figure D.1). We use 5°C bins in the estimation of the causal effect of temperature exposure on student performance. We consider bins from below zero degrees Celsius (<32°F) to more than thirty degrees Celsius (>86°F). The average Dutch maximum temperature is around 13°C (see Table 5.2), which is why we use the 10-15°C (50-59°F) bin as our reference category. Besides dealing with the bimodal distribution of the temperature measures, this approach explores a potential nonlinear relationship between student performance and temperature exposure, as suggested by the literature (e.g., Pilcher et al., 2002). 5.4 Results 5.4.1 Baseline estimates Figure 5.1 represents the estimates of our baseline model. The horizontal axes in both panels represent the temperature distribution in bins, with the gray vertical lines indicating the reference temperature bin of 10-15 degrees Celsius. The vertical axes depict the causal effect of temperature on student performance in standard deviations. We find that heat extremes negatively impact students’ performances in reading and math. We establish significant negative effects if the daily maximum temperature exceeds 20 degrees Celsius, compared to the reference category of 10-15 degrees Celsius. This temperature is not that extreme, as this maximum temperature occurs often in the Netherlands. Compared to a daily maximum temperature between 10-15 de125
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