Chapter 4. The Interplay of Reading, Spelling, and Math in Primary Education: A Panel VAR Analysis 4.5 Conclusion This chapter demonstrates that reading, spelling, and math skills develop simultaneously and interdependently. Contemporaneously, reading and spelling are associated at around 0.10 SD, whereas this association is around 0.20 SD for the other skills. Dynamically, this chapter finds that skills are predominantly related to their own past values. Nevertheless, reading, spelling, and math skills show predictive associations with each other. In general, a one standard deviation shock to the residual of one skill is associated with increases in the other skills. Through the lens of a thought experiment using generalized IRFs, these shocks illustrate how changes in one skill coincide with responses in other skills over subsequent periods. Over the long run, the simulations show that changes in one skill area are linked with persistent adjustments in related skills, highlighting the dynamic patterns of co-movement captured by the model. What does this mean for the skill development process of Dutch primary school students? We observe that increases in one skill are associated not only with continued development in that skill but also with changes in other skills. These patterns generally accumulate over roughly 1.5-2 years. Even five years later, skill levels remain elevated, suggesting that early gains may be linked with sustained differences in performance over the medium term. While these observations do not demonstrate causal effects, they suggest that skills may mutually reinforce each other, with gains in one domain coinciding with sustained improvements in other domains over time. 102
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