86 Chapter 4 Table 4.8: Immigration and the Welfare State- replacement rates Unemployment replacement rate Unemployment replacement rate Social assistance replacement rate Social assistance replacement rate CEE labour 1.73** 1.13*** migrationt-1 (0.68) (0.40) WE labour 0.36 –0.15 migrationt-1 (0.31) (0.84) Foreign-born t-1 –0.33 0.51 0.13 0.78** (0.48) (0.41) (0.64) (0.40) Trade opennesst-1 2.56 2.95 6.70* 6.66* (x10–2) (2.48) (2.32) (3.93) (3.64) Capital opennesst-1 0.18 0.09 –0.76 –0.90 (x10–2) (0.38) (0.37) (1.60) (1.42) Left seatst-1 4.89*** 5.03*** 1.61*** 1.76*** (x10–2) (1.26) (1.26) (0.59) (0.58) Union densityt-1 0.17 0.18 –0.03 –0.01 (0.24) (0.22) (0.17) (0.17) Deindustrialisationt-1 –0.29** –0.36*** 0.08 0.07 (0.14) (0.13) (0.40) (0.38) Log of GDP per –37.91** –41.31*** –23.83 –22.47 Capitat-1 (16.84) (15.91) (15.52) (14.63) Unemploymentt-1 –0.19 –0.18 –0.36 –0.35 (0.22) (0.22) (0.23) (0.23) 2004 expansion 0.14 0.38 –0.00 0.07 “restrictions lifted” (0.47) (0.51) (0.49) (0.34) 2007 expansion –0.46 –0.63 –0.48 –0.47 “restrictions lifted” (0.82) (0.88) (0.50) (0.45) 2013 expansion 2.12 2.20 –1.55*** –1.50*** “restrictions lifted” (1.30) (1.35) (0.44) (0.39) Constant 471.07** 504.77*** 275.23 255.94 (184.39) (175.05) (176.07) (163.61) Country fixed effects YES YES YES YES N 167 167 121 121 adj. R2 0.86 0.87 0.96 0.96 Rho 0.45 0.38 0.50 0.49 RMSE 5.05 5.20 1.67 1.75 Standard errors in parentheses * p < .1, ** p < .05, *** p < .01
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