Thesis

Intra-EU Labour Mobility and the Welfare State 83 Table 4.7: EU15 labour migration and disaggregated social spending Disaggregated Social Welfare Spending Old Age Incapacity Family ALMP Unemployment WE labour –0.00 0.03 0.05* 0.02 0.01 migrationt-1 (0.05) (0.04) (0.03) (0.01) (0.02) Foreign-born t-1 0.19*** 0.04** 0.06*** 0.04*** 0.14*** (0.06) (0.02) (0.02) (0.01) (0.04) Trade opennesst-1 0.46 0.21 –0.30 –0.12 –0.04 (x10–2) (0.41) (0.23) (0.20) (0.09) (0.18) Capital opennesst-1 –0.06 –0.09* –0.02 –0.01 0.02 (x10–2) (0.06) (0.05) (0.05) (0.01) (0.02) Deindustrialisationt-1 0.02 –0.00 –0.03** –0.00 –0.01 (0.02) (0.01) (0.01) (0.00) (0.01) Left seatst-1 –0.13 0.03 –0.05 0.14*** 0.15** (x10–2) (0.13) (0.06) (0.04) (0.03) (0.05) Union densityt-1 0.03 0.05*** –0.01 –0.01 0.05*** (0.03) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) Log of GDP per –1.58 –1.39 –0.35 –1.96*** –3.11** Capitat-1 (2.38) (0.88) (0.97) (0.42) (1.34) Unemploymentt-1 0.02 –0.03*** 0.01 –0.01* –0.00 (0.03) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.02) Old dependency 0.23*** ratiot-1 (0.05) Disability ratet-1 0.02 (0.01) Young dependency 0.01 ratiot-1 (0.03) 2004 expansion –0.03 0.01 –0.04 –0.00 –0.01 restrictions lifted (0.12) (0.04) (0.04) (0.02) (0.07) 2007 expansion 0.02 0.00 0.00 –0.01 0.06 restrictions lifted (0.10) (0.05) (0.05) (0.02) (0.07) 2013 expansion 0.18 –0.01 –0.00 –0.01 –0.01 restrictions lifted (0.12) (0.09) (0.06) (0.04) (0.11) Constant 29.48 27.20*** 1.91 12.14** 38.10*** (20.64) (6.02) (8.50) (5.61) (8.43) Country fixed effects YES YES YES YES YES N 130 126 130 126 128 adj. R2 0.95 0.96 0.94 0.88 0.85 Rho 0.51 0.35 0.31 0.35 0.31 RMSE 0.37 0.15 0.15 0.08 0.20 Standard errors in parentheses * p < .1, ** p < .05, *** p < .01

RkJQdWJsaXNoZXIy MjY0ODMw