Thesis

82 Chapter 4 Table 4.6: EU13 Labour migration and Disaggregated Social Spending Disaggregated Social Welfare Spending Old Age Incapacity Family ALMP Unemployment CEE labour –0.01 0.08*** 0.08** 0.01 0.05** migrationt-1 (0.06) (0.02) (0.04) (0.01) (0.02) Foreign-born t-1 0.20*** 0.01 0.04* 0.04*** 0.12*** (0.07) (0.02) (0.02) (0.01) (0.03) Trade opennesst-1 0.48 0.22 –0.31 –0.12 –0.02 (x10–2) (0.42) (0.20) (0.20) (0.09) (0.19) Capital opennesst-1 –0.06 –0.08* –0.02 –0.01 0.02 (x10–2) (0.06) (0.04) (0.05) (0.01) (0.02) Deindustrialisationt-1 0.02 0.00 –0.03** –0.00 –0.01 (0.02) (0.01) (0.01) (0.00) (0.01) Left seatst-1 –0.14 0.02 –0.05 0.16*** 0.15** (x10–2) (0.14) (0.06) (0.04) (0.04) (0.05) Union densityt-1 0.03 0.05*** –0.01 –0.01 0.05*** (0.03) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) Log of GDP per –1.57 –1.43* –0.40 –2.01*** –3.14*** Capitat-1 (2.40) (0.82) (0.93) (0.43) (0.99) Unemploymentt-1 0.02 –0.03*** 0.01 –0.01** –0.00 (0.03) (0.01) (0.01) (0.00) (0.02) Old dependency 0.23*** ratiot-1 (0.05) Disability ratet-1 0.02* (0.01) Young dependency –0.01 ratiot-1 (0.02) 2004 expansion –0.03 –0.01 –0.06 –0.00 –0.02 restrictions lifted (0.11) (0.04) (0.04) (0.02) (0.05) 2007 expansion 0.02 –0.00 0.01 –0.00 0.06 restrictions lifted (0.10) (0.05) (0.05) (0.02) (0.04) 2013 expansion 0.18 –0.01 –0.01 –0.01 –0.02 restrictions lifted (0.12) (0.08) (0.06) (0.04) (0.05) Constant 15.40 15.59* 8.86 22.45*** 31.26*** (26.03) (8.98) (9.96) (4.74) (10.89) Country fixed effects YES YES YES YES YES N 167 123 167 167 167 adj. R2 0.95 0.96 0.95 0.88 0.85 Rho 0.52 0.35 0.31 0.35 0.33 RMSE 0.37 0.15 0.16 0.09 0.24 Standard errors in parentheses * p < .1, ** p < .05, *** p < .01

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