The Political Economy of Immigration and Welfare State Effort: Evidence from Europe 15 ing survey data from 17 European countries, Burgoon et al. (2012) report that exposure to increasing immigration at the occupational-level raises individual economic uncertainties and leads to greater support for government redistribution. In contrast, Alesina et al. (2001) argue that ethnic diversity is a crucial factor for explaining why the US does not have a welfare state similar to those in Europe. They find that if the probability of two people drawn at random from a population will belong to different ethnic groups increases by just one percentage point, then social spending as a percentage of GDP is expected to reduce by 7.5 percentage points. Consequently, they reason that as Europe’s heterogeneity increases, rising ethnic divisions will be used to challenge generous welfare states. Alesina and Glaeser (2004) extend their previous research through expanding their analysis to 54 countries worldwide. They find a negative correlation between ethnic fractionalisation and social spending. They propose that generous welfare states are contingent on a homogeneous society because support for the welfare state depends on solidarity between citizens which is fostered through common linkages such as culture and language. Alesina and Glaeser (2004) state that increasing immigration in Europe will challenge Europe’s comparatively generous welfare states. Soroka et al. (2006) combine two Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) social spending databases covering 18 OECD countries over the period 1960-2000. They investigate changes in stocks of foreign-born on changes in social welfare spending and show that in countries with higher rates of immigration, welfare spending grows less than in countries with limited migration. Soroka et al. (2016) build on this previous research through separating social spending into nine different sub-categories and find that there are different effects in different spending programmes and provide further evidence for their assertion that increases in immigration lead to smaller increases in social welfare spending. In a qualitative study looking specifically at the EU, Kvist (2004) examines whether EU enlargement leads to member states adjusting their social policy benefits. He argues that EU-15 member states do engage in strategic interactions and that the member states most actively adjusting their social policies are the ones that put in place fewer restrictions on the labour market access of citizens from new member states. In light of recent EU enlargements, it is possible that these interactions may have continued. However, using a sample of European OECD Countries in a quantitative study, Mau and Burkhardt (2009) contend the conclusion that migration poses a threat to European welfare states. They reason that the claim is overexaggerated and show only a weak, negative influence of ethnic diversity on support for the welfare state, which is mediated when controlling for certain factors such as GDP and unemployment. Moreover, in a compara-
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