Intra-EU Labour Migration and Attitudes Towards the Welfare State 113 Figure 5.2 displays the average marginal effects of CEE labour migration on the probability of the five outcomes at different levels of unemployment with 95% confidence intervals. From the graph, one can see that the marginal effects matter most regarding the probability of ‘agreeing’ with the statement regarding redistribution. At higher levels of unemployment and CEE labour migration the average probability of responding with ‘agree’, all else remaining equal, is significantly reduced. The initial effect suggests some evidence in favour of the compensation hypothesis, but then at high levels of CEE labour mobility and unemployment the relationship becomes negative. It may be that individuals in a more unstable economic environment, high levels of unemployment are generally associated with downturns in the economy, are somewhat more concerned about the financial burden on the welfare state. For the other outcomes, there are no significant changes. Figure 5.2: Average Marginal Effects of CEE Labour Migration with 95% Cis 5.6 Additional Checks For examining how attitudes towards social policy are influenced by foreign-born and CEE labour migration, I also test some related variables alongside our main analysis that may help identify the mechanisms behind our hypotheses. I follow the example set by Burgoon et al., 2012 and present a similar table (Table 5.4) where the headline results for the two indicators of immigration are presented for each dependent variable. I explore six related dependent variables to help understand the nuanced relationships between immigration and attitudes towards social policy: (1) subjective unemployment risk, (2) welfare chauvinism, (3) fiscal efficiency, (4) subjective poverty risk, and (5) the likelihood of voting yes to leaving the EU.
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