104 Chapter 5 This theoretical conceptualisation stemming from the literature review guides the hypotheses I make next and assess in this chapter. Below are the two key hypotheses that are tested. H1: CEE mobility as a percentage of the labour force is positively associated with support for redistribution through increasing individual job insecurity. H2: Foreign-born as a percentage of the population has a neutral effect on support for redistribution because it is such a general measure and contains many different types of mobility so that positive and negative mechanisms cancel each other out, not because there is no association between immigration and social policy preferences. 5.3 Method I explore how two different categories of movement – one general and one more specific – are associated with attitudes towards redistribution and how these migration indicators are related to job insecurity and preferences towards redistribution. After testing the direct link between immigration and preferences for redistribution, I aim to further assess the link between immigration and job insecurity through immigration’s intersectional relationship with the unemployment rate. As a rise in the unemployment rate can be considered an external source of job insecurity, I test the way this interacts with the indicator for CEE labour mobility and foreign-born. In the additional checks section, I also test subjective job insecurity and subjective poverty risk as dependent variables. Plus, I use an indicator for welfare chauvinism. To analyse individual preferences towards redistribution I use two different multilevel models, multilevel ordered logit and multilevel logit, to test our hypotheses. I explicitly model a multilevel structure with individuals nested in countries, because I want to control for the micro-level individual characteristics and macro-level contextual factors that can shape preferences. Multilevel modelling allows us to account for the hierarchical structure of our research question and data. Moreover, to allow for variation of dependent variable I use a random-slope model. The individual-level analysis uses data from the 2016 round (wave 8) of the European Social Survey (ESS). This wave is particularly relevant as, as well as following recovery from the 2008 financial crisis, it has a special module on welfare attitudes allowing us to explore a number of avenues related to redistribution preferences. I use data on 13 European countries: Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, the Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom. These are the countries that are both in the round of the 2016 ESS and that I was able to create indicators for labour migration in the EU-LFS.
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