92 Chapter 4 Table 4.11: Immigration and the Welfare State – replacement rates – ECM Δ Unemployment replacement rate Δ Unemployment replacement rate Δ Social assistance replacement rate Δ Social assistance replacement rate Lagged dependent –0.21** –0.17* –0.30** –0.29** variable (0.11) (0.10) (0.09) (0.11) Δ CEE labour 0.66 1.78*** migration (0.93) (0.54) CEE labour 1.09* 1.23*** migrationt-1 (0.63) (0.30) Δ WE labour 0.30 –0.45*** migrationt-1 (0.42) (0.12) WE labour 0.26 –0.43** migrationt-1 (0.41) (0.28) Δ Foreign-born 0.50 1.11 –0.30 0.49 (0.84) (0.81) (0.28) (0.31) Foreign-born t-1 0.24 0.72** –0.39*** 0.32*** (0.30) (0.29) (0.09) (0.18) Δ Trade openness –0.26 1.37 1.26 0.55 (x10–2) (4.44) (4.72) (2.42) (3.03) Trade opennesst-1 –3.65 –3.36 1.32 0.03 (x10–2) (2.84) (3.16) (0,82) (1.06) Δ Capital openness –0.26 –0.36 –0.52** –0.59* (x10–2) (0.52) (0.51) (0.25) (0.32) Capital opennesst-1 0.31 0.01 –1.03*** –1.16** (x10–2) (0.76) (0.78) (0.34) (0.45) Δ Left seats 2.85*** 2.96*** 0.63* 0.73 (x10–2) (0.83) (0.82) (0.38) (0.48) Left seatst-1 3.42*** 3.08*** 0.48 0.44 (x10–2) (0.66) (0.56) (0.30) (0.37) Δ Union Density –0.90** –0.84** –0.23* –0.33*** (0.37) (0.37) (0.13) (0.12) Union densityt-1 –0.17 –0.14 –0.05 –0.02 (0.15) (0.14) (0.10) (0.10) Δ Deindustrialisation –0.01 0.05 0.61*** 0.59*** (0.21) (0.23) (0.10) (0.14) Deindustrialisationt-1 –0.30** –0.33** 0.13 0.16 (0.15) (0.16) (0.10) (0.10) Δ Log of GDP per –26.19 –26.96* –2.24 –4.06 capita (18.46) (17.40) (5.07) (7.44)
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