88 Chapter 4 Table 4.9: Disaggregated Social Spending and CEE Labour Migration – ECM Δ Old Age Δ Incapacity Δ Family Δ ALMP Δ Unemployment Lagged dependent –0.09*** –0.28*** –0.36*** –0.41*** –0.23*** variable (0.03) (0.02) (0.07) (0.06) (0.08) Δ CEE labour –0.04 0.06** –0.08** –0.01 –0.04 migration (0.06) (0.03) (0.03) (0.02) (0.04) CEE labour –0.07** 0.03 –0.01 0.01 0.03** migrationt-1 (0.03) (0.02) (0.02) (0.01) (0.02) Δ Foreign-born –0.08 0.00 0.05* 0.01 0.01 (0.05) (0.02) (0.03) (0.02) (0.03) Foreign-bornt-1 0.04 –0.00 0.03** 0.03** –0.01 (0.02) (0.01) (0.02) (0.01) (0.01) Δ Trade openness –0.17 0.41*** 0.21 –0.47*** –0.52** (x10–2) (0.24) (0.12) (0.22) (0.08) (0.22) Trade opennesst-1 0.07 0.14 –0.01 –0.31*** –0.29* (x10–2) (0.22) (0.10) (0.15) (0.07) (0.16) Δ Capital openness 0.05 –0.05*** –0.03 –0.02** 0.05 (x10–2) (0.04) (0.02) (0.02) (0.01) (0.03) Capital opennesst-1 0.05 –0.09*** –0.03 –0.04*** 0.08 (x10–2) (0.06) (0.03) (0.04) (0.01) (0.05) Δ Left seats –0.09 0.01 –0.02 0.05 0.11* (x10–2) (0.07) (0.02) (0.05) (0.03) (0.06) Left seatst-1 –0.06 –0.04*** 0.00 0.10*** 0.09*** (x10–2) (0.04) (0.01) (0.03) (0.02) (0.03) Δ Union Density 0.06** 0.03*** –0.01 0.01 0.03* (0.02) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.02) Union densityt-1 0.01 0.03*** –0.01** –0.00 –0.01 (0.02) (0.00) (0.00) (0.01) (0.01) Δ Deindustrialisation –0.01 0.01 –0.01 –0.01*** –0.00 (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.00) (0.01) Deindustrialisationt-1 0.00 0.01** –0.03*** 0.00 0.00 (0.01) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.01) Δ Log of GDP per –8.00*** –2.91*** –4.22*** –0.89* –2.55*** capita (0.56) (0.38) (0.59) (0.46) (0.85) Log of GDP per –0.29 0.24 –1.03* –1.76*** –1.98** capitat-1 (0.47) (0.40) (0.59) (0.26) (0.79)
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