53 Narcolepsy Type 1 2013 Incidence Peak Figure 4. The predictions of LOESS models for children and adults’ cases in all countries. The predicted values given by the models and their 95% predictive CIs are marked as green circles/lines and the actual values are in black circles. Age-specific increases in NT1 in individual countries The increase in 2013 in children and adolescent patients was unexpected. We further checked if the increases in 2010 or 2013 were age-specific for individual countries by modelling the numbers of children/adult patients using LOESS models (Figure 5), respectively. The results were: 1. In 2009–2011 significant increases in the children and adolescent cases were found in Czech Republic (2.47-fold, 95% CI: [1.46, 8.15]), Finland (18.08-fold, 95% CI: [8.62, ~]), France (2.30-fold, 95% CI: [1.30, 10.18]), Germany (2.46-fold, 95% CI: [1.69, 4.46]), the Netherlands (2.69-fold, 95% CI: [1.67, 6.92]), and Spain (5.13-fold, 95% CI: [1.99, ~]). Significant increases in the adults’ cases in 2009–2011 were only found in Finland (10.05-fold, 95% CI: [4.60, ~]), France (4.74-fold, 95% CI: [2.97, 11.72]), and Germany (2.86-fold, 95% CI: [1.80, 6.86]). Therefore the increases in Czech Republic, Spain, and the Netherlands in 2010 were age-specific for children/adolescent narcolepsy in 2010. 2. In 2009–2011, the maximum increases in children/adolescent and adults’ patients in Germany occurred in 2011 and 2009, respectively. In France and Finland, the maximum increases in both children and adults’ patients were in 2010. 3. In 2013, significant increases in children/adolescent NT1 were found in Italy (2.18-fold, 95% CI: [1.39, 5.05]), the Netherlands (2.80-fold, 95% 2
RkJQdWJsaXNoZXIy MjY0ODMw