50 Chapter 2 and Finland the increase was 1.65-fold (95% CI: [1.36, 2.11]) (Figure 1D). The narrower predictive CIs of LOESS models compared to the ARIMA models (i.e. [2.11, 3.19] vs. [1.79, 3.41], [1.36, 2.11] vs. [1.14–2.41], as shown in Figure 1) indicated that the overall LOESS models were indeed more robust than the ARIMA models in predicting the numbers of new cases because they also included the information after 2009 pH1N1. Results of LOESS models using overall data from 1995 to 2016 in individual countries We further analysed the data from each country individually using the more robust LOESS models. The results are shown in Figure 2. Significant increases were found in all the countries except for Italy and Switzerland in 2009–2011. The increases were 3.91-fold (95% CI: [2.75, 6.79]), 14.07-fold (95% CI: [7.19, 325.61]), 3.39-fold (95% CI: [1.75, 49.33]), and 2.03-fold (95% CI: [1.25, 5.43]) in 2010 in France, Finland, Spain, and Czech Republic, respectively. Although significant increases in 2010 can be observed in the Netherland and Germany, the maximum increases were 1.92-fold (95% CI: [1.44, 2.89]) and 2.21-fold (95% CI: [1.47, 3.82]) in 2011 in these two countries, respectively.
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