49 Narcolepsy Type 1 2013 Incidence Peak Finland and France were two signalling countries previously reporting significantly increased NT1 IR in 2010. The same ARIMA models were carried out in these two countries, respectively. The actual new cases in 2010 in Finland (15 patients) and France (19 patients) were significantly 9.78-fold (95% CI: [2.49, ~]) and 4.07-fold (95% CI: [1.90, ~]) increased compared with the predicted numbers, respectively. Considering that the significant result over all countries could be mainly driven by the strong effects of France and Finland, we repeated the ARIMA prediction model combining all countries except these two countries (Figure 1B). The number of actual new cases remained significantly higher than the predicted number (1.54-fold higher, 95% CIs: [1.14–2.41]). Figure 1. The predictions of ARIMA models and LOESS models. The results of ARIMA models combining all countries are shown in (A) and the ones in the countries without Finland and France are in (B). The results of LOESS models combining all countries are in (C) and the ones in all the countries expect for Finland and France are in (D). The predicted values given by the models and their 95% predictive CIs are marked as green circles and the actual values are in black circles. The ratios and its 95% predictive CIs between the actual maximums and the predicted values are shown in the figure. Results of LOESS models using overall data from 1995 to 2016 The LOESS models included all data both before and after 2009–2010 pH1N1 to predict the numbers of new cases in 2009–2011. The results confirmed the significant increases in patients in 2010: combining all the countries the increase was 2.54-fold higher (95% CI: [2.11, 3.19]) (Figure 1C) and after removing France 2
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