111 Chapter 5 Deterioration Modelling of Sewer Pipes via Discrete-Time Markov Chains: A Large-Scale Case Study in the Netherlands Paper published at L. A. Jimenez-Roa, T. Heskes, T. Tinga, H. J. A. Molegraaf and M. Stoelinga, “Deterioration Modelling of Sewer Pipes via Discrete-Time Markov Chains: A Large-Scale Case Study in the Netherlands”, in 32nd European Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2022: Understanding and Managing Risk and Reliability for a Sustainable Future, pp. 1299-1306. 2022, doi:10.3850/978-981-18-5183-4_R22-13-482-cd. Abstract Sewer network systems are a crucial component of civil infrastructure. To achieve an optimal balance between maintenance costs and system performance, reliable sewer main deterioration models are crucial. In this chapter, we make use of a large-scale case study from Breda, a city located in The Netherlands (see Section II.4.3). Our dataset includes information on sewer mains constructed since the 1920s and contains various covariates. We focus on three types of damage: infiltrations, surface damage, and cracks, each with an associated severity index ranging from 1 to 5. To account for the characteristics of sewer mains, we defined six cohorts of interest. Two types of Discrete-Time Markov Chains (DTMCs), which we have termed Chain “Multi” and “Single” (with Chain “Multi” containing additional transitions compared to Chain “Single”), are commonly employed to model sewer main deterioration at the pipeline level. We aim to evaluate which model is more suitable for our case study. To calibrate the DTMCs, we define an optimisation process using
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