Chapter 4. Does ethnic heterogeneity of clubs affect member dropout? 95 To better grasp the implications of the final model, the effect of ingroup share on member’s predicted probability of dropout is plotted for both backgrounds and for different levels of outgroup fractionalization in figure 4.1. As was already indicated by the estimate for migrant background on dropout in model 6 (-5.95%), we can now see that members with a Dutch background are in fact estimated to be more likely to drop out than their counterparts when ingroup share and outgroup fractionalization approach zero. Because the positive effect of outgroup fractionalization is stronger for members with Dutch backgrounds than for members with migrant backgrounds, this difference is larger for higher values of outgroup fractionalization (also see the increase in the gap between both lines for higher values of outgroup fractionalization). For ingroup share, the opposite holds true. Higher values reduce the dropout of members with Dutch backgrounds more than that of members with migrant backgrounds. Thus, at high enough levels of ingroup share, the dropout of members with Dutch backgrounds is as low as that of members with migrant backgrounds or lower. This is illustrated by the intersecting lines for each of the three values for outgroup fractionalization. 4.5 Conclusions and discussion In this chapter I have studied the relationship between the ethnic composition of amateur football clubs and member turnover. The research question guiding this chapter was: To what extent does ethnic heterogeneity of amateur football clubs affect member dropout? The outcomes of my analyses that member dropout is clearly affected by club heterogeneity. Members are substantially more likely to drop out of ethnically heterogeneous clubs than out of clubs with more homogeneous compositions. In this chapter, I have discussed three possible explanations for this effect. The first explanation for this effect is an attraction to ingroup members over outgroup members, known as the homophily principle. The outcomes suggest that homophily plays a pivotal role in explaining ethnic heterogeneity’s effect on dropout. Not only do variations in ingroup share have a substantial impact on
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