Chapter 5. Off to greener pitches? 111 The figures on the mean change in outgroup fractionalization lead us to draw a similar conclusion. In this case, most values are negative, but some groups show a small positive change instead. Similar to the findings on ingroup share, the magnitude of the mean changes for each of the twelve groups, including members with a Dutch background, cannot be considered meaningful. Consequently, the results also suggest that club transfers do not substantially change members’ outgroup fractionalization. Based on these results, the expectations that transfers between clubs lower members’ ethnic outgroup fractionalization (expectation 2) and that this effect would be strongest for members with a Dutch background (expectation 4) must also be refuted. A potential explanation for the fact that transfers between clubs do not seem to affect members’ average ingroup share and outgroup fractionalization is that for most members the opportunity to change to a club with a substantially more favourable ethnic composition seldom presents itself. In a landscape where the vast majority of clubs is dominated by members with a Dutch background (see chapter 4), most clubs have roughly the same thing to offer. For members with a migrant background, this entails a small minority position in a club with a large, relatively homogeneous and primarily Dutch outgroup. For members with a Dutch background, this is a strong majority position with a more diverse but relatively small outgroup. Under such circumstances, the costs of transferring to a new club will in most cases outweigh the benefits, regardless of one’s background. Moreover, if ethnic sorting upon entry is relatively strong, as suggested by others (McPherson et al., 2001, Wiertz, 2016), other clubs are more likely to offer less attractive, not more attractive compositions to members. When we compare the numbers of transfers between clubs and the total number of dropouts in table 5.2, this does suggest that for the vast majority of members changing clubs is not an interesting option. Between 83 and 88 percent of the members who terminate their membership at their last club do not join a new club in the following season. This may also mean that a substantial share of members who do change clubs, do so for other reasons than their clubs’ ethnic composition. One important reason to change clubs can be a relocation to another area. If members move to a new location, maintaining a club membership might no longer be feasible or worthwhile and another, often closer, alternative might be available. For the purpose of this study, it is therefore beneficial to control for these movers, because they have the potential to water down or even hide the ethnic sorting of members who deliberately transfer to another club.
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