108 Ethnic sorting in football E2: Member transfers have a negative effect transferees’ ethnic outgroup fractionalization In the previous chapter, it was shown that the effect of ingroup share on dropout is stronger for members with Dutch backgrounds than for members with migrant backgrounds. Furthermore, members with a Dutch background are able to choose out of many clubs in which they have a majority share, while the options to be part of even a sizable minority within a club are relatively scarce for migrant members. This could mean that members with Dutch backgrounds more often transfer to clubs with higher ingroups shares than members with migrant backgrounds. At the same time, it could also be that because members with Dutch backgrounds almost always already have a substantial majority position in their club, they have much less to gain from transfers than members with migrant backgrounds. This would mean that the biggest changes in ingroup share from transfers would be found among members with migrant backgrounds. This leads to two opposed expectations: E3A: The positive effect of transfers on transferees’ ethnic ingroup share is strongest for members with a Dutch background E3B: The positive effect of transfers on transferees’ ethnic ingroup share is strongest for members with a migrant background The effect of outgroup fractionalization on dropout was also stronger for members with Dutch backgrounds. Moreover, because members with Dutch backgrounds tend to have such a large majority position, clubs tend to vary more in and report higher overall degrees of outgroup fractionalization for Dutch members than for migrant members, whose outgroup tends be predominantly Dutch. Both these facts suggest that members with Dutch backgrounds are likely to see bigger reductions in outgroup fractionalization when they transfer to other clubs. This leads to the final expectation of this chapter. E4: The negative effect of transfers on transferees’ ethnic outgroup fractionalization is strongest for members with a Dutch background.
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