102 PART THREE | DELIRIUM Unscheduled admittance Delirium risk 16 % (49/304) Scheduled admittance Delirium risk 1 % (3/270) Admission to the medical oncology ward Delirium risk 9 % (52/574) Curative treatment Delirium risk 60 % (3/5) Palliative treatment Delirium risk 18 % (9/49) *Any of the following: Calcium Sodium Potassiu mGlucose Albumin <1.75 or >3.10 mmol/l (corrected for albumin) <130 or >155 mmol/l <3.0 or >6.0 mmol/l <2.2 or >13.9 mmol/l <20 g/l WHO 3‐4 Delirium risk 54 % (14/26) WHO 0‐2 Delirium risk 22 % (12/54) Metabolic imbalance* Delirium risk 33 % (26/80) No metabolic imbalance Delirium risk 10 % (23/224) Unscheduled admittance Delirium risk 16 % (49/304) Admission to the medical oncology ward Delirium risk 9 % (52/574) Curativ treatment Delirium risk 60 % (3/5) Palliative treatment Delirium risk 18 % (9/49) *Any of the following: Calcium Sodium Potassiu mGlucose Albumin <1.75 or >3.10 mmol/l (corrected for albumin) <130 or >155 mmol/l <3.0 or >6.0 mmol/l <2.2 or >13.9 mmol/l <20 g/l WHO 3‐4 Delirium risk 54 % (14/26) WHO 0‐2 Delirium risk 22 % (12/54) Metabolic i balance* Delirium risk 33 % (26/80) No metabolic i balance Delirium risk 10 % (23/224) Delirium prediction algorithm To determine the most relevant factors for the risk at delirium, a prediction algorithm by using tree analysis was developed using the enriched database. The optimum number of splits, with the lowest cross-validated prediction error, was four. The absolute risks in the decision tree, obtained by projecting the algorithm to the original, non-enriched dataset, are depicted in Figure 1. A patient admitted to the hospital ward has a risk of 9 percent to develop delirium (95%-CI: 6.8-11.7%). The first factor that made a major distinction between a low risk at delirium (1.1% in the original dataset, 95%-CI: 0.2-3.2%) and an intermediate risk at delirium (16% in the original dataset, 95%- CI: 12-21%) was whether or not an admission was scheduled. Due to the very low risk at delirium (1:100), it was deemed unnecessary to make any further distinctions within the group with a scheduled admittance. In the group with an Figure 1. Delirium risk is defined by the combination of factors mentioned in the boxes, starting with a baseline risk of 9% when a patient is admitted to the medical oncology ward. The * refers to the square in the corner of the figure where the metabolic imbalances are defined
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