93 An evaluation of predictors for success of 2-duct ligation for drooling in neurodisabilities 4 Table 2. Prediction model (n = 40) Clinical characteristics Univariable analyses Multivariable analyses r P value Adjusted OR (95% CI) P value Age (continuous) 0.30 0.063* 1.25 0.099* Non-ambulant 0 1.0 Anteflexion -0.35 0.028* 0.24 0.056* Dental malocclusion 0.16 0.32 Tongue protrusion -0.14 0.38 VSSD -0.19 0.25 0.39 0.22* Nagelkerke R₂ = 0.29 P value ≤ 0.25; Non-ambulant = Gross Motor Function Classification System score IV-V; Anteflexion = anteflexion head posture; Tongue protrusion: Permanent–often vs. sometimes–never; Very severe speech disorder (VSSD) = no speech, anarthria or very severe dysarthria vs. severe-moderate-mild-no dysarthria. After backward selection three factors were identified as predictors of treatment success: age, poor posture, and the presence of very severe speech disorders (VSSD). The bias corrected AUC was 0.68. Before bias correction the AUC was 0.79. Quintiles between predicted probable average and observed probable average were closely related (figure 1). The figure illustrates that there is a strong agreement between predicted and observed probability which shows that there is a strong relation between the prediction model and the true data. Moreover, Hosmer-Lemeshow test indicated a good fit of the model (p = 0.97, x² 0.27, df 3). Based on the logistical regression analysis, the formula to calculate the probability for treatment success for 2-DL is: Odds ratio = -0,94 + 0.22 * age – 1.43 * anteflexion – 0,95 * very severe speech disorder Probability = odds ratio / (1 – odds ratio)
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